This Man Predicted the Future. Aaron Bastani Meets Peter Turchin

History is not just one thing after another. Historians spend lifetimes figuring out how X event in medieval France impacted Y event in 20th century Polynesia – but none of these historians have truly ‘done the math’ like this week’s guest.

Coming from a background in applied mathematics, Peter Turchin has gathered an unprecedented amount of historical data which he believes gives him a better chance than most of predicting how societies slide into grave crises.

He’s been proven right too: in the early 2010s, he predicted that 2020 would see a global rise in instability. Aaron Bastani finds out how he did it.

End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites and the Path of Political Disintegration is out now.

Everything We Think We Know About Human History Is Wrong | Downstream With David Wengrow.
Russia Pulls Back From Kyiv.
Why Libertarians Agree With Putin | Ash Sarkar.
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Donate one hour’s wage per month—or whatever you can afford—today.