Shock Poll Shows It’s Down to the Wire for Corbyn in Islington North

Former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn could lose Islington North despite being significantly more popular in the constituency than both the Labour party and current leader Keir Starmer, exclusive polling for Novara Media reveals.

The new Survation poll has Labour’s candidate Praful Nargund on 43%, while Corbyn – who is standing as an independent in the north London seat – is on 29%.

Campaigners described the shock polling as a “wake up call”, but said Corbyn could win if enough people joined the campaign for his re-election in the final week before polling day.

While the poll shows Corbyn trailing, it also shows that the independent candidate has a higher favourability than both the Labour party and current leader Keir Starmer in the seat. 

In a hypothetical two-candidate contest between Labour and Corbyn, Corbyn would win 55% of votes to Labour’s 45% (excluding undecided voters). Corbyn also had a net favourability rating of +21.6, while Starmer had just +0.3.

Campaigners say this shows that in order for Corbyn to win the seat, voters need to know he is running as an independent.

Hilary Schan, former Momentum chair and member of campaign group We Deserve Better, told Novara Media: “Our supporters campaigning for Jeremy have spoken to postal voters who have already voted Labour thinking they were voting for Jeremy. 

“Other voters have said they’re worried about the Tories getting in if they don’t vote Labour, which is obviously impossible.

“This poll should be a wake up call for anyone who supports Jeremy but hasn’t been down to campaign for him,” she continued. 

“We need more campaigners to help us inform as many voters as possible that Jeremy is an independent, [and] that it’s a two horse race between him and Labour.”

The polling shows the difficulty of running as an independent in a two-party system, with a £15,000 spending limit, as well as less access to volunteer support data. Fewer than ten completely independent candidates have been elected to parliament since 1950.

In March, Labour’s national executive committee voted to approve a motion from Starmer to block Corbyn from standing as a Labour candidate in the seat he has represented since 1983 amid a purge of leftwing candidates from the party. In May, Corbyn announced that he would run as an independent.

The Survation poll also shows that a majority of Islington North constituents think the Labour leadership was wrong to block Corbyn as the party’s candidate (50% to 35%).

In a video launching his campaign as an independent, Corbyn said: “Members of Islington North Labour have been denied the right to choose their own candidate.

“The community as a whole has been disempowered because of that.”

Survation surveyed 514 Islington North voters over the age of 18 between 20-25 June 2024. The poll was commissioned by Stats for Lefties in partnership with Novara Media and We Deserve Better, and was funded with the support of 304 donors in a GoFundMe campaign. Crosstabs will be uploaded to the Survation website.