As an ancient 32-year-old, I have no business being up at 4.30am. But at the time of writing, the Conservatives are being dealt a battering that would put a chip-shop sausage to shame. Though the exit poll – which put them at 131 seats – wasn’t as bad as the total apocalypse being predicted by some, it’s looking pretty grim for the Tories.
Eight cabinet ministers including Grant Shapps, Gillian Keegan, and Lucy Frazer have lost their seats so far. There will almost certainly be more to come. By some miracle, Jeremy Hunt survived the night, clinging on in Godalming by 900 votes. And while talk of this being the largest Commons majority since 1832 might have been a wee bit overexcited, it’s clearly been an awful night for the natural party of government. After 14 years of cruelty, chaos and corruption: f*ckity bye.
But wow, what a weird night it’s been. In many north-east seats, the Tories have been beaten into third place by Reform UK. Reform also picked up Clacton, Ashfield and Boston and Skegness. And yet Nigel Farage’s band of bigots have failed to take Barnsley North, Barnsley South or Hartlepool, despite being predicted to win in all three by the 10pm exit poll. It’s difficult to imagine a path to the 13 seats tipped at the start of the night by Sir John Curtice, but it wouldn’t be quite right to say Reform has underperformed either. Ukip managed to transform the face of UK politics without ever winning a seat at a general election. I shudder to think what Farage can do with a parliamentary presence.
Labour has won by a landslide. It’s recovering in Scotland, it’s winning back the red wall, and will have a free hand in the Commons to pass whatever legislation it likes. But Jeremy Corbyn defeated the Labour candidate Praful Nargund in Islington North. Jonathan Ashworth, the shadow paymaster general, lost in a shock defeat to pro-Palestine independent Shockat Adam. Thangam Debbonaire was toppled in Bristol Central by the Greens’ co-leader Carla Denyer. Wes Streeting clung on in Ilford North by just over 500 seats, with Leanne Mohamad snapping at his heels. Pro-Palestine independents have defeated Labour in Blackburn and Dewsbury and Batley. And Iain Duncan Smith retained his seat in Chingford and Woodford Green, as Faiza Shaheen split the vote and denied her Labour rival victory. So yes, Labour has won by a landslide. It’s also been punished for its stance on Gaza and its lurch to the right.
What does this mean for Keir Starmer? His support is broad, but shallow. He’s vulnerable to attacks from his left, and Farage has vowed that his party is “coming for Labour”. Starmer has won the keys to Downing Street – but he can’t sleep easy.
Ash Sarkar is a contributing editor at Novara Media.