A Scandal-Rocked Trump Ally Just Won the Polish Presidency. Believe It Could Happen in Britain

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This was not how it was meant to go. Sunday’s Polish presidential election – a narrow victory for Trump-backed Karol Nawrocki – shocked the country’s liberal establishment. On Sunday, the rightwing Law and Justice party (PiS)’s candidate defeated the ruling centre-right Civic Coalition’s (KO) Rafał Trzaskowski in a knife-edge second round, 50.9% to 49.1%.

This election was Trzaskowski’s to lose. The centrist mayor of Warsaw, widely seen as Donald Tusk’s natural successor, had all the markings of a front-runner with his sleek image, academic credentials and linguistic skills (he boasts fluency in five languages). For months, opinion polls were giving Trzaskowski a comfortable lead. So confident was he of a win that when an exit poll showed him just 0.6% ahead, he delivered a victory speech.

The unexpected winner focused his campaign on proposals such as giving Polish citizens priority access to healthcare and schools, cutting social benefits for Ukrainian refugees, rejecting the EU’s climate policies and staunch opposition to “gender ideology”. Nawrocki was previously little known in politics: a historian who, when the election was called, was serving as the head of the Institute of National Remembrance. Yet his inexperience was the least of his worries.

Nawrocki’s campaign was rocked by a string of scandals. Just ahead of the first round, it was revealed that Nawrocki had taken possession of an apartment in Gdańsk in exchange for “caring” for its elderly owner, whom reporters later tracked down in a retirement home (PiS figures called the claims against Nawrocki “lies” cooked up by the security services). Nawrocki also admitted to having taken part in brawls, describing them as “noble, masculine combat”. At the end of May, it was reported that he had procured sex workers for guests at a luxury hotel where he once worked as a security guard (allegations Nawrocki denies). Yet none of this managed to put off his supporters.

The great moving right show.

Unlike Nawrocki, Trzaskowski is far from a fresh face on the political scene. Apart from having served as the capital’s mayor since 2018, he had already unsuccessfully challenged the sitting president Andrzej Duda, in 2021. He was associated with the more progressive wing of KO, known for his enthusiastic pro-EU stance and advocacy for LGBTQ+ rights. In recent months, however, Trzaskowski has changed his tune, much like the rest of his party. Much of his campaign hinged not on a vision for change, but on spreading fear of PiS – while at the same time edging towards them in language and policy.

Trzaskowski has aped PiS’s anti-migrant rhetoric, pledging more deportations and rallying against accepting refugees. Earlier this year, he spoke in favour of restricting access to child benefits for Ukrainians fleeing war. He also backpedalled on his support for LGBTQ+ people, expressing opposition to the adoption of children by same-sex couples.

Ahead of the second round, both Nawrocki and Trzaskowski appeared on a series of YouTube live streams hosted by Sławomir Mentzen, the third-placed candidate of the Confederation party and even further to Nawrocki’s right. Nawrocki played to type. Yet it was Trzaskowski’s performance that was most surprising: while he expressed some polite disagreements with his opponent, he also nodded along to demands like opposing all new taxes. He then joined the far-right radical for a friendly pint, a photo opportunity that stunned even Mentzen’s supporters. But there’s more to Trzaskowski’s defeat than just questionable campaign strategy.

All Tusked out.

The election took place against a backdrop of widespread disillusionment with the incumbent Donald Tusk and his KO-led coalition government. Having triumphantly defeated PiS in 2023, promising sweeping reforms, the coalition has disappointed on several fronts. Despite KO’s promise to legalise abortion within its first 100 days in power, no progress has been made in two years, due in part to the reluctance of more conservative coalition MPs. Despite Poland’s steady economic growth, the government has failed to redistribute wealth or boost public services. Instead, it has attempted to cut health insurance contributions for business owners (a move that was blocked by president Andrzej Duda, following pressure from the left).

In the absence of a substantive policy programme, Tusk has focused much of his efforts on attacking migrants: from arming immigration enforcement officers to suspending the right to claim asylum for everyone arriving via Belarus, a move condemned by several human rights organisations as a breach of international law. Since 2021, the Polish-Belarusian border has seen a surge of crossings by asylum seekers from the Middle East and North Africa. Polish authorities have blamed Alexander Lukashenko, accusing him of luring migrants to Europe as part of a “hybrid warfare” strategy. The border area has been turned under a militarised zone – a policy started by PiS and continued by Tusk.

Much to Tusk’s surprise, borrowing from the hard right’s playbook didn’t neutralise it – quite the opposite.

What’s left?

Luckily for KO, the Polish president’s powers are limited. The most important tool at his disposal is the ability to veto bills. However, with the lack of progressive proposals coming out of the current government, Nawrocki won’t have much to block.

The real danger will come at the next general election, planned for 2027. PiS hopes to return to power, possibly with the support of the even more extreme Confederation. Were this to happen, Trzaskowski as president would have been able to stop their worst authoritarian excesses. Without these checks and balances, the future of Polish democracy is far from safe.

Watching the election, it was impossible not to see parallels with similar upsets around the world. Like the US Democrats found out in November, no amount of fearmongering and personal scandals can defeat the radical right in the absence of compelling alternatives. In the UK, Starmer’s government – much like KO – has prioritised appeasing the right over delivering on its promise of change. The result? More and more polls showing Reform in the running for a parliamentary majority in 2029.

Poland should serve as a warning that the far-fetched can quickly become a reality. Smug liberalism is not the answer to an insurgent right, nor is mimicking its talking points. Unless progressives can define what they stand for and tangibly improve people’s lives, they’re doomed.

With Tusk stubbornly unwilling to learn this lesson, perhaps the biggest challenge is the one facing the Polish left. Its relatively good performance in the first round, especially among young voters, is a silver lining of this election. The candidate furthest to the left, the democratic socialist Adrian Zandberg, won the support of one in five voters under 30, coming second only to Mentzen in this cohort. As the only parliamentary opposition force to the left of KO, his party Razem has the opportunity to channel the growing frustration with vapid centrism. Otherwise, the future looks bleak.

Ana Oppenheim and Ewa Pospieszyńska are leftwing activists who met through the Polish women’s movement. Ewa Pospieszyńska is based in London and is involved in Razem International. Ana Oppenheim is doing a master’s degree in political communication at the Complutense University of Madrid.

Ana Oppenheim and Ewa Pospieszyńska met through the Polish women’s movement.