Good Morning, Reform. Goodbye, Keir Starmer?

Before the counts have even got underway in many parts of the country, the losses for Labour appear catastrophic this morning – perhaps even, for one Sir Keir Starmer, terminal. As of 9am on Friday, Labour has lost more than 60% of its councillors. Reform has exceeded even its own expectations, winning at least a third of seats declared so far. The Liberal Democrats have turned Richmond into a one-party state. The Greens’ target councils in London have yet to declare, but have built up their vote-share since 2024 (even if their five councillors were ousted by Ed Davey’s barmy army in Twickenham).

No matter where you turn, Labour is haemorrhaging votes. And that’s before we get a look at the Senedd and Holyrood elections in Wales and Scotland respectively.

With Reform jockeying with Plaid Cymru to win the Senedd, and in contention with Labour to come second in Scotland, it’s clear that Nigel Farage is odds-on to win the next general election. Though a few negative stories popped up over the campaign (a racist, rape-celebrating candidate, an undeclared ‘gift’ of £5 million, Richard Tice’s shell companies’ unpaid tax), Farage could thank Zack Polanski’s Twitter fingers for distracting the mainstream media and absorbing most of Labour’s ire.

In recent weeks, Labour has been relentless in attempting to discredit the Green party. It’s attacked candidates for offences ranging from antisemitic social media posts, to liking Bob Vylan, to having been forced into becoming a drug mule 30 years ago. Though the official line is that Labour is the only party capable of stopping Nigel Farage, its messaging most recently was almost entirely anti-Green. Though that may have stymied Green gains in some London seats (we’ll find out later), it did nothing to stem losses in Hartlepool. There, Reform has won every seat it contested – prompting Hartlepool’s Labour MP to call for Keir Starmer’s resignation.

Unevenly distributed scrutiny, plus strict party discipline (Novara Media has heard that Reform’s candidates were under instructions not to talk to the media) gave Nigel Farage a free run at the locals. He has not squandered the opportunity.

What about Zack Polanski? The past fortnight has undoubtedly been the toughest period so far in his leadership of the Green party. As one Green party activist put it to me this week, “the screaming hate machine got turned on all of a sudden” – it has become impossible for Polanski to set out his stall for the local elections without first wading through accusations of antisemitism. He has been subjected to antisemitic caricature by the mainstream press; been accused of using his Jewish identity as a ‘shield’ by at least two columnists from The Times; and tacitly accused of appealing to extreme Islamists in order to bolster the Green party vote (are there many in Seven Sisters?). The playbook is as obvious as it is cynical: create a political environment in which antisemitic is synonymous with pro-Palestine, in order to break the left.

Polanski has, however, been left exposed by a) his own propensity to hit retweet like he’s an F1 driver testing his reflexes, and b) the Greens’ patchy candidate vetting. Sabine Mairey, their candidate in Clapham Town, was arrested after allegedly sharing a post which read “ramming a synagogue isn’t anti-Semitism, it’s revenge”. Another, also arrested, allegedly claimed that 9/11 was an Israeli false-flag. While these individuals are not representative of the opinions held by the vast majority of Green members or candidates, they have been catapulted into notoriety by press coverage. When you’re on the left, there is little grace on offer for the stupidity of those selected to stand for office.

How much will it hurt their chances? As mentioned already, the Greens have lost five seats in Richmond-upon-Thames. But they’ve made gains elsewhere in the country, most notably Reading and Peterborough. Their targets in London aren’t in the leafy south-west: they’re in north, east, and south-east boroughs like Haringey, Hackney, and Lewisham. Indeed, Hackney is the real test of the Green surge: if they can’t take the borough council at least to No Overall Control, then they’ll have underperformed as a party. Conversely, if they make significant gains in Haringey (where they won their first ever councillor, who I must declare in the interests of transparency is also my housemate), Zack Polanski can consider it a pleasant end to an abysmal fortnight.

We turn, at last, to the prime minister. Keir Starmer has been a dead man walking since his ill-advised attempt to cut Winter Fuel Allowance (rule one of British politics: don’t fuck with pensioners). But it’s been in a full ‘Weekend at Bernie’s’ situation since Gorton and Denton: he’s kicked the bucket, politically speaking, but it’s in the Labour party’s interest to pretend he’s not so that he can take the blame for last night’s results. While some, like Sarah Sackman, gamely insist that Sir Keir will lead them into the next election, much of the PLP will be weighing up replacements. Andy Burnham is said to have a plan to secure himself a parliamentary seat “within weeks”.

It’s highly likely that contenders like Wes Streeting and Angela Rayner could find the numbers to trigger a leadership contest – what might stop them going for it is the old adage that those who wield the knife rarely wear the crown. Ideally, Keir Starmer would outline a timeline for his departure, as floated by Ed Miliband in recent weeks, to allow for an orderly and dignified transition of power. But this, sirs, is the Labour party. There is no dignity here.