NHS Drug Deal Could Cause 200,000 Avoidable Deaths

The NHS will be forced to divert billions of pounds from essential services to pay more for new drugs under the terms of the UK-US trade deal, according to new analysis, after ministers caved to pressure from president Donald Trump over tariffs.

The trade deal is also projected to lead to over 200,000 excess deaths and deepen health inequalities. 

Announced on 1 December 2025, it was hailed as a “landmark” agreement by the Labour government and billed as a way to give patients access to potentially life-saving medicines that may have previously been assessed as too expensive.

Ministers and drug industry bosses backed the deal because it allowed UK medicines imported to the US to avoid tariffs of up to 100% threatened by Trump.

However, it has also committed the NHS to more than doubling the amount it will pay for new drugs over the next 11 years, according to analysis published in the British Medical Journal on Wednesday. 

A total of £44.7bn in NHS cash will be diverted from health services by 2036 in order to pay more for new medicines under the trade deal – if no extra funding is made available to cover additional costs – the analysis suggests. 

This reduced spend on NHS services will harm the UK’s public health, leading to a projected 229,000 avoidable patient deaths by 2036, the evaluation found.

The estimated avoidable death toll is higher than the number of deaths – 137,000 – that occurred during the Covid-19 pandemic from March 2020 and June 2022.

According to the government, the deal will cost only an extra £1bn between 2025-26 and 2028-29. It has admitted costs will rise after 2028-29, but no estimates have been given.

The full details of the trade deal have not been made public, with calls for transparency around it spearheaded by campaign groups Global Justice Now and Just Treatment on behalf of NHS patients.

Global Justice Now previously warned it would see NHS services axed “to pacify Donald Trump and big pharma’s demand for higher medicines prices”.