Starmer and Lammy Projected to Lose Their Seats to the Greens

Prime minister Keir Starmer and his deputy David Lammy are both set to lose their seats to the Green party at the next general election, according to forecasts by Electoral Calculus.

The latest prediction by the pollster, which uses mathematical modelling that draws on age, class, occupation and other demographic data, shows that Starmer has just a 27% chance of retaining his seat in Holborn and St Pancras, while the Greens have a 70% chance of winning it.

A candidate for Zack Polanski’s party would secure more than 33% of the vote in the constituency of roughly 75,000 eligible voters, a huge leap from the 10% share the Greens won in the 2024 general election.  

Lammy, meanwhile, would suffer an even bigger wipeout in Tottenham. He won there in 2024 with more than 57% of votes, but the Greens are now comfortably in first place with 38% while Lammy would secure roughly 26% of the vote.

Electoral Calculus gives the Greens an 80% chance of winning in Tottenham.

“David Lammy will lose his seat to the Green party,” Polanski wrote on X on 5 March. “London can let go of these MPs who have protected power and wealth – and vote for a Green party rooted in communities.”

The new prediction follows the Greens’ historic byelection win last month in Gorton and Denton. Gorton had been a Labour safe seat for about a century.

Analysis by Electoral Calculus for the Telegraph showed that if the Green party could replicate that success across the country, it would secure 249 seats in parliament, while Labour and the Tories would be virtually wiped out with 33 and 10 seats respectively.